Ostentatious title, is it not? For who could assume to know what the ever-changing pharmaceutical industry could turn into? I will not attempt to divulge the future in its entirety, but I will hit on one future scenario that I envision: turning third-world emerging economies into viable pharmaceutical marketplaces.
It's not about greed (well, to some extent it always is, but it's certainly not entirely greedy). The three billion people that live on $2/day need quality, affordable products, too! 99% of the time, due to a lack of good products and the bargaining power of supplies, the base of the pyramid gets ripped off. It's unfortunate; they are forced to take what's offered.
But if there was a way to make products affordable while maintaining their quality - in areas of the world that suffer from disease and sickness more so than the rest - that would be an high-revenue, high-humanitarian product.
We already see Big Pharma moving there. The big guys are acquiring little generics firms which target emerging economies. Glaxo just did it with Laboratorios Phoenix in Argentina. But let's let the numbers do the talking. IMS Health, a leading provider of prescription drug data, forecasts drug sales growth in leading emerging markets will average 14-17% annually, while major developed markets grow 3-6%.
In Africa, several countries are large, profitable, growing markets. Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Kenya, and Nigeria are all $1+ billon pharma markets, and Jordan is a little below half a billion and growing at approximately CAGR 10%.
Watch for more and more third-world partnerships, acquisitions, and JV's to form. Even more on the edge: watch for more and more in-country manufacturing. Now we're talkin' crazy.
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